Modeling dynamic effects of promotion on interpurchase times

نویسندگان

  • Dennis Fok
  • Richard Paap
  • Philip Hans Franses
چکیده

In this paper we put forward a duration model to analyze the dynamic effects of marketing-mix variables on interpurchase times. We extend the accelerated failuretime model with an autoregressive structure. An important feature of our model is that it allows for different long-run and short-run effects of marketing-mix variables on interpurchase times. As marketing efforts usually change during the spells, we explicitly deal with time-varying covariates. Our empirical analysis of purchases in three different categories reveals that, for some segments of households, the shortrun effects of marketing-mix variables are significantly different from the long-run effects.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

The Additive Risk Model for Purchase Timing

This paper proposes the Additive Risk Model (ARM), first used by Aalen (1980), to explain households’ interpurchase times. Unlike the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM), first proposed by Cox (1972), the ARM incorporates the effects of covariates on the individual hazard function in an additive (as opposed to multiplicative) manner. While a large number of previous studies on interpurchase timing ...

متن کامل

A Composite Transition Model for Brand Choice and Purchase Timing Data

A new approach for analyzing duration state data in brand-choice studies is explored. This approach not only incorporates the correlation among repeated purchases for a subject, it also models the purchase timing and the brand decision jointly. The former is accomplished by applying transition model approaches from longitudinal studies. The latter is done by conditioning on the brand choice var...

متن کامل

Customer Lifetime Value Measurement

T measurement of customer lifetime value is important because it is used as a metric in evaluating decisions in the context of customer relationship management. For a firm, it is important to form some expectations as to the lifetime value of each customer at the time a customer starts doing business with the firm, and at each purchase by the customer. In this paper, we use a hierarchical Bayes...

متن کامل

Bayesian Theory with Application to Customer Segment and Consuming Behavior Control for Online Business

In this paper, we follow the model of interpurchase times to achieve heterogeneity across customers. We employ a mixture model to segment customers into three states: super-active, active and inactive. The interpurchase model and mixture model are solved by the hierarchical Bayes via Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. We employ CUSUM chart based on the density of active state to monitor consumer ...

متن کامل

Analyzing household brand switching: A stochastic model

In a recent study, Kahn, Morrison and Wright showed that for exponentially distributed interpurchase times (of individuals), the household choice process approaches a zero-order process as the number of individuals in the household increases, even though the purchasing behavior of each individual is first order. We show that their result holds for any arbitrary interpurchase-time distribution t...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Computational Statistics & Data Analysis

دوره 56  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2012